Sunday, May 01, 2005

 

AL Roundup, 5/1/05

The second edition of my 2005 AL Roundup series; remember, these are coming every other week, with the NL Roundup filling in the other weeks. It gives it some time in between the posts, and allows records to develop as well as rankings. On to the numbers again...

AL East Actual Standings
1) Baltimore 16-7 (.696) 137 RS, 109 RA
2) Boston 12-11 (.522) 130 RS, 104 RA
3) Toronto 13-12 (.520) 122 RS, 118 RA
4) New York 10-14 (.417) 123 RS, 129 RA
5) Tampa Bay 8-16 (.333) 105 RS, 153 RA

AL East Pythagenport
1) Baltimore 115-47 (.713)
2) Boston 114-48 (.707)
3) Toronto 86-76 (.533)
4) New York 73-89 (.453)
5) Tampa Bay 30-132 (.183)

Oddly enough, the pythagenport standings are in the same order as the actual standings, even though Baltimore and Boston are much more dominant in their pythagenport ones. I do not expect Baltimore to win 115 games, but I also do not expect Boston to win 114. Toronto at 86-76 seems to be at the high end of their projection, but it is something they are capable of. New York's projection would be nice to see, but I do not think they will continue to lose at the rate they have. Do I think they have a chance at missing the playoffs? Well that all depends on whether or not Baltimore is for real or not. If Baltimore is able to win 90 games somehow, by keeping their fast start over a two month span and playing .500 ball the rest of the way (like the 2003 Royals, except with two months of great ball as opposed to one) they may be able to keep ahead of New York, who may continue their poor play for a few more weeks. Tampa Bay is the only team I expect to continue to play poorly, but not as poorly as they have so far. 100 losses is definitely a possibility though.

AL Central Actual Standings
1) Chicago 17-7 (.708) 106 RS, 81 RA
2) Minnesota 15-8 (.652) 113 RS, 93 RA
3) Detroit 11-11 (.500) 121 RS, 98 RA
4) Cleveland 9-14 (.391) 86 RS, 102 RA
5) Kansas City 6-18 (.250) 88 RS, 135 RA

AL Central Pythagenport
1) Chicago 119-43 (.738)
2) Detroit 113-49 (.697)
3) Minnesota 110-52 (.681)
4) Cleveland 55-107 (.341)
5) Kansas City 26-136 (.158)

Chicago is the 2003 Royals again; wait until the pitching stops coming. The hitting is not as awful as it has been, but the pitching is nowhere near this good. Tomorrow I'll do an article comparing the Chicago rotations current numbers as compared to their career averages. I can see Detroit winning 80+ games, but not enough to make a difference; third place for them. Minnesota is probably going to win the division (I know its early, but Cleveland is still the next best team in the division in my mind and they are not doing enough with the bat at the moment). Kansas City...well...don't aspire to this.


AL West Actual Standings
1) LA Angels 13-11 (.542) 110 RS, 103 RA
2) Oakland 12-12 (.500) 89 RS, 101 RA
3) Seattle 12-12 (.500) 108 RS, 101 RA
4) Texas 12-13 (.480) 123 RS, 136 RA

AL West Pythagenport
1) Seattle 92-70 (.566)
2) LA Angels 91-71 (.564)
3) Texas 65-97 (.402)
4) Oakland 62-100 (.381)

I don't see Seattle's rotation holding up in the long term: Gil Meche is already starting to feel sore, which is never a good sign, and I have not heard anything positive about Bobby Madstritch's condition yet. Jamie Moyer's rejuvenation is nice, but he pitched well in the first half last year too, so we'll see if he just doesn't have the gas to go a full season anymore. Seattle might snag second place, but with a win total in the 80's. The Angels have a shot at 91 wins, but I see that as the peak of what they can do as a team, especially with Steve Finley showing his age. Texas' record looks a little harsh, but if Seattle is an 80+ win team, someone in the division needs to lose. Oakland's pythagenport record is completely screwed up right now because of the streak of offensive shutouts they had. Once they start scoring runs again, their record should improve. By the time we get to the next AL Roundup in 2 weeks I bet that they are on pace for 75-80 wins atleast.

There are a lot of interesting scenarios in the AL so far, such as when will Chicago crash and burn (sometime in May I think) and when will Oakland pick it up (around the same time probably). Baltimore is making themselves a player, although they remind me of the 2003 Blue Jays more than anything...lots of offense, but enough pitching?


Link
Comments:
If Baltimore stays competitive / 90-win caliber, the AL East is going to suffer from some serious self-inflicted wounds in terms of record. They might not even get a wild card from the division...I think I'll take a look at that later.
 
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