Monday, April 25, 2005


RLWHF Pitchers Complete!

The auto induction period is complete, and the Ray Lankford Wing of the Hall of Fame's original membership is set at 268 hitters and pitchers. I have one thing to say, before you ask, "Where are the aces of the 19th century?" Well, here goes: I posed the question of why the difference between Win Shares and WARP3 was so great to Clay Davenport, who replied:

"There are two big reasons why the difference between WS and WARP are so large for 19th century pitchers. Number one, WARP includes a correction for the level of play. Each league in history has a strength rating, which has generally increased over time. I used the post-1950 numbers to define the expected slope through time; as it happens, and as expected, most everything pre-WWII falls well below that line. The adjustment is especially harsh in the American Association, especially in 1882-84 and 1890-91, as the league was a lot weaker than the NL (and the trend line) in those years. However, I think the bigger reason is another feature of the WARP system - that the division of defense into pitching and fielding is not a constant across time. While the pitchers of the 1800 threw a lot of innings, and got the "W" more often, I don't believe they had as much control over the outcome as pitchers of today - they were more dependent on their fielders than modern pitchers; that's a reflection of the lower rates for strikeouts, walks, and home runs, the fact that there were more balls put in play, and more errors made. For example,in 1885 NL I break the defense down into 828 RAR for pitchers, and3579 RAR for the fielders - or 19% pitching. In 1985, the numbers are 4598 pitching, 3301 fielding, 58% pitching. As a result, innings from the 1880s end up getting counted as only about a third as valuable as innings from a modern pitcher, so pitchers from that time don't end up with enormous single-season warp numbers.I am pretty certain that the idea, of pitching being a less important component of total defense the further you go back in time, iscorrect. I'm happy with the balance that I get over eras with my all-time lists. But that doesn't mean that I have the exact magnitudes correct. I don't know that there is a way to say, yes, certainly, thisis the amount that belongs to the fielders and this much to thepitchers. I think the numbers I have are a good approximation, but I don't believe that they are beyond question."

This information from Clay helped me come to a conclusion: Somehow, Mark Gubicza and his 146 Win Shares were rated more valuable than Tony Mullane and his 399. This makes sense though, as Mullane pitched in the weak American Association, and after multiplying his 399 WS by 1/3 you get .131 WS...or less than Gubicza. So basically, instead of dividing this into eras, I took the best of the 19th century that passed the 50 JAWS score test (which a few did; obviously the cream of the crop from that time.) So before anyone asks, "Where is Tony Mullane?" just know the question has been answered in the form of all-time translated statistics.

Starting Pitchers

Kevin Appier, SP 189 WS, 66.2 JAWS
Vida Blue, SP 202 WS, 55.05 JAWS
Bert Blyleven, SP 339 WS, 91 JAWS
Harry Brecheen, SP 173 WS, 50.55 JAWS
Ted Breitenstein, SP 212 WS, 51.9 JAWS
Tommy Bridges, SP 225 WS, 54.35 JAWS
Lew Burdette, SP 178 WS, 50.5 JAWS
Tom Candiotti, SP 158 WS, 52.15 JAWS
Eddie Cicotte, SP 247 WS, 53.5 JAWS
David Cone, SP 205 WS, 62.4 JAWS
Danny Darwin, SP 182 WS, 54.5 JAWS
Paul Derringer, SP 231 WS, 54.3 JAWS
Murry Dickson, SP 204 WS, 62.45 JAWS
Wes Ferrell, SP 233 WS, 62.2 JAWS
Chuck Finley, SP 213 WS, 67.15 JAWS
Larry French, SP 218 WS, 50.05 JAWS
Bob Friend, SP 207 WS, 61.15 JAWS
Ned Garver, SP 166 WS, 59.3 JAWS
Dwight Gooden, SP 187 WS, 59.15 JAWS
Mark Gubicza, SP 141 WS, 52.35 JAWS
Ron Guidry, SP 174 WS, 53.5 JAWS
Mel Harder, SP 234 WS, 56.55 JAWS
Orel Hershiser, SP 210 WS, 66.4 JAWS
Charlie Hough, SP 233 WS, 65.15 JAWS
Larry Jackson, SP 225 WS, 61.9 JAWS
Tommy John, SP 289 WS, 69.2 JAWS
Jim Kaat, SP 268 WS, 63.55 JAWS
Jimmy Key, SP 188 WS, 61.5 JAWS
Jerry Koosman, SP 240 WS, 57.65 JAWS
Mark Langston, SP 184 WS, 60.1 JAWS
Dutch Leonard, SP 233 WS, 61.7 JAWS
Mickey Lolich, SP 224 WS, 56.35 JAWS
Red Lucas, SP 194 WS, 50.75 JAWS
Dolf Luque, SP 241 WS, 50.15 JAWS
Dennis Martinez, SP 233 WS, 65.1 JAWS
Carl Mays, SP 256 WS, 51.1 JAWS
Jack Morris, SP 225 WS, 62.85 JAWS
Don Newcombe, SP 176 WS, 50.7 JAWS
Bobo Newsom, SP 237 WS, 56.9 JAWS
Claude Osteen, SP 201 WS, 54.3 JAWS
Camilo Pascual, SP 175 WS, 56.15 JAWS
Claude Passeau, SP 189 WS, 57.7 JAWS
Jim Perry, SP 205 WS, 51.8 JAWS
Billy Pierce, SP 248 WS, 62.9 JAWS
Jack Quinn, SP 287 WS, 52.45 JAWS
Rick Reuschel, SP 240 WS, 74.55 JAWS
Steve Rogers, SP 182 WS, 51.05 JAWS
Eddie Rommel, SP 209 WS, 53.6 JAWS
Nap Rucker, SP 177 WS, 52.05 JAWS
Bret Saberhagen, SP 193 WS, 66.25 JAWS
Urban Shocker, SP 225 WS, 57.5 JAWS
Curt Simmons, SP 210 WS, 52.35 JAWS
Dave Stieb, SP 210 WS, 67.25 JAWS
Frank Tanana, SP 241 WS, 74.1 JAWS
Luis Tiant, SP 256 WS, 65.9 JAWS
Virgil Trucks, SP 198 WS, 50.8 JAWS
George Uhle, SP 231 WS, 51.95 JAWS
Fernando Valenzuela, SP 168 WS, 54.15 JAWS
Frank Viola, SP 187 WS, 59.6 JAWS
Bucky Walters, SP 251 WS, 66.7 JAWS
Lon Warneke, SP 220 WS, 56.85 JAWS
Bob Welch, SP 188 WS, 54.2 JAWS
Wilbur Wood, SP 190 WS, 60.5 JAWS

Relief Pitchers

Rick Aguilera, RP 147 WS, 45.5 JAWS
Steve Bedrosian, RP 119 WS, 34.35 JAWS
Dave Giusti, RP 118 WS, 34.3 JAWS
Goose Gossage, RP 223 WS, 59.45 JAWS
Tom Henke, RP 140 WS, 41.4 JAWS
Mike Henneman, RP 98 WS, 33.55 JAWS
Willie Hernandez, RP 109 WS, 35.75 JAWS
Mike Jackson, RP 124 WS, 36.6 JAWS
Mike Marshall, RP 146 WS, 47.65 JAWS
Tug McGraw, RP 158 WS, 40.7 JAWS
Stu Miller, RP 154 WS, 44.5 JAWS
Greg Minton, RP 111 WS, 35.35 JAWS
Jeff Montgomery, RP 134 WS, 45.3 JAWS
Robb Nenn, Rp 120 WS, 41.85 JAWS
Gregg Olson, RP 98 WS, 35.3 JAWS
Jesse Orosco, RP 140 WS, 44.45 JAWS
Ron Perranoski, RP 125 WS, 35.55 JAWS
Dan Plesac, RP 113 WS, 36.15 JAWS
Dan Quisenberry, RP 157 WS, 47.1 JAWS
Dick Radatz, RP 84 WS, 33.55 JAWS
Jeff Reardon, RP 157 WS, 41.9 JAWS
Lee Smith, RP 198 WS, 56.15 JAWS
Bob Stanley, RP 149 WS, 46.3 JAWS
Bruce Sutter, RP 168 WS, 44.4 JAWS
Kent Tekulve, RP 159 WS, 46.6 JAWS
John Wetteland, RP 130 WS, 43.65 JAWS

There you have it, the 89 pitchers who were eligible for auto induction. If you find anyone my eyes might have skipped across in my Total Baseball (just know that many modern pitchers hovering around the 150 WS mark were capable of producing JAWS scores high enough to get in, such as Candiotti and Gubicza) then alert me and I'll add them if they pass the test. From this point on, we may do some elections (after I move to SportsBlog Nation) for some of the players who juuuuust missed auto-induction, as well as inducting future retirees. But for now, this is it, 268 of the greatest non-Hall of Famer's in baseball history.

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