Friday, April 15, 2005

 

The Last Step for Hitters in the RLWHF

4/16/05 afternoon: Since plans A-D didn't work, I moved on to Plan E. This consisted of replacing Johnny Pesky with Jim Fregosi to up the average on Win Shares and allow me to stay at players 90% the value of the Filter Lineup for now. The limit is roughly 200 Win Shares now to get in, unless your Mickey Tettleton and your JAWS score is better than many players with more WS. So basically what I'm going to do is figure out all of the 200+ Win Shares players first, and leave the other ones for a second round of induction afterwards when I check their JAWS scores. That leaves 219 players, a far cry from the 534 and 377 of before. The good news is, that is over with. The bad news is I'm going to calculate JAWS for all of these players now, and then get their links and induct them if worthy, or throw them on the voting list if not. It might be that no one but Mickey Tettleton has the JAWS score to make it in under 200 Win Shares. Darren Daulton, a similar player to Tettleton, also had a low WS total and his JAWS didn't crack 45, making me sadly kick him off the list. JAWS has to be done for a few reasons, and here is why: Greg Vaughn and Travis Fryman both have 199 Win Shares, but there JAWS scores are over 8 points apart. Fryman's is 52.55, making him eligible for auto induction at third base, while Vaughn's JAWS of roughly 44 does not qualify him for any of the three outfield positions. So I have a lot of work to do now. I apologize for the lack of posting, but this project is taking up a lot of time, not to mention I work all weekend.

4/16/05: I weeded out all the players below the 85% threshold, and that left me with 413 players....I'm not very amused. So it looks as if I'm moving up to 90% right now, or a 190 Win Shares cutoff...I'm not even posting this until I counted..............377 players, damnit. 200 WS cutoff? I'll see after work.

4/15/05 Afternoon: This paragraph has been added on since the post this morning after I came to realize my list was much too big. I have 534 hitters on my list using 157-161 as the bottomline, so I am going to have to shave it off some. There are 260+ guys in Cooperstown, and I don't mind surpassing that at all, but not by 500 guys (remember I have not done pitchers yet). So instead of players who hold 75% of the value of the Filter Lineup, I will use players who are 80% as valuable, or maybe even 85%. This has to be done to cut the number down. Basically, if it is 80%, no players under 172 Win Shares will be allowed to enter the voting pool, and an 85% limit would raise that figure to 183 Win Shares. A separate figure will probably be instituted for pitchers. Basically, I'll go through the list and count the players below 172...if the figure I end up with minus those players is still too high in the end, I'll add the guys below 183 Win Shares to the list of castoffs as well. The players do get a 5 Win Share minus bonus, so 167 and 178 would be acceptable respectively until I get to figuring their JAWS scores. If the JAWS score for the players I have allowed to linger on the list is not adequate, than they will get their final push out the door. Basically, I'm trying to make it so that the wrong people do not come in here and devalue the RLWHF as a whole, but I want to make sure I do not miss out on too many people, or guys who look borderline via Win Shares but JAWS sees them as legit and vice versa. Just so everyone knows, Smokey Joe Wood has enough Win Shares as a hitter to enter the RLWHF that way...ahh the good old days, when many pitchers could hit.

As I was going through my 2003 edition of Total Baseball, and my list kept growing and growing since I arbitrarily picked 135 as my cutoff point for Win Shares, I did not think too much of it. Then I came to Scott Fletcher's name in the book. I realized at that point, that since Scott Fletcher was going to be allowed into the RLWHF, it was time to mathematically figure out a cutoff point, even if it is done simply. So here is what I did.

I took the average of the Win Shares of the Nine Man Filter Lineup I built yesterday, with Mickey Tettleton, Mo Vaughn, Frank White, Todd Zeile, Johnny Pesky, Ray Lankford, Ellis Burks, Eric Davis, and Hal McCrae. This figure came out to be 215.5555556. I then multiplied that by .75 to come out to a Win Shares total for players that would be 75% the player my filter lineup is as a collective unit. This brought me to a figure of 161.6666667, or for Win Shares purposes, 162. I will use 161 as the figure though. This will be used as my guideline; if anyone has around 157 or 158 Win Shares, I will list them from Total Baseball just incase their JAWS score is adequate for induction. I have a lot of name crossing off to do for now, so you should get an article later tonight, something along the lines of an AL Roundup thus far.

By the way, for pitchers (to save a post for later) will probably be gauged off of Win Shares as well, and I'll see if I can find 5 pitchers who fit the bill much like my lineup, and then proceed to average them out and come out to a bottomline figure as well.

Comments:
By the way, this cutoff point is for voting eligible players not the auto-inducted.
 
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