Monday, April 25, 2005


Kazmir vs. Zambrano and Mulder vs. Haren Part Deux

Updates on Kazmir vs. Zambrano and Mulder vs. Haren...

Scott Kazmir 2005
4 GS, 22.0 IP, 3.68 ERA, .241 BAA, 1.00 K/BB (12:12), 4.91 K/9, .248 BABIP
Last Seven Days: 7 IP, 5 K, 3 BB, 6.43 K/9

Victor Zambrano 2005
4 GS, 22.1 IP, 5.64 ERA, .337 BAA, 1.36 K/BB (19:14), 7.66 K/9, .401 BABIP
Last Seven Days: 11.1 IP, 9 K, 6 BB, 7.15 K/9

Zambrano's BAA and BABIP are extremely high, so his ERA is inflated somewhat. Considering Kazmir has a 3.68 ERA with the weak peripherals it is scary to think what he could do if he puts it altogether. Of course, his last start against the powerful Red Sox lineup went extremely well, so maybe he is starting to turn a corner. Or maybe he is a #5 starter who looks like a #1 everytime he faces Boston. It is hard to tell for now.

Mark Mulder 2005
4 GS, 29 IP, 3.10 ERA, .252 BAA, 2.00 K/BB (14:7), 4.34 K/9, .283 BABIP
Last Seven Days: 18 IP, 7 K, 3 BB, 3.50 K/9

Danny Haren 2005
4 GS, 23.2 IP, 4.56 ERA, .222 BAA, 1.54 K/BB (20:13), 7.61 K/9, .291 BABIP
Last Seven Days: 10.2 IP, 11 K, 7 BB, 9.28 K/9

Mulder looks to have improved somewhat , even though his K/9 continues to fall as time goes on. Mulder is a power pitcher who is going to start winning with smoke and mirrors before it all comes crashing down again. Why is it that Haren is the one with the power pitcher peripherals and Mulder looks like Kirk Rueter? For now Mulder is on top of this one, but only by a bit, and the farther he falls from power pitcher status the quicker his own status will drop.

I want to do some work on K/PA rather than K/9 on occasion, because it is a better indicator of strikeout rate. Consider this: Kazmir strikes out the side in a 1-2-3 inning. Zambrano strikes out the side but gives up 2 walks and a homerun in the meantime. Same exact K/9 rate, but Kazmir's K/PA would be 1.00 while Zambrano's would be 0.50. Kazmir's K/PA at the moment is .122 while Zambrano's is .170. In the other battle, Mulder's is .121 while Haren's stands at .190, the best of the bunch. From now on I'll use this statistic as well as K/9 in the peripherals of these 4 pitchers. I'll run another post later today, but I wanted to update this since everyone has accumulated a few starts since the last time I did it.

Of course I should probably mention just how good Mulder's last start was: 101 pitches and 10 IP vs. Clemens is no small feat...let us see if he can come close to replicating that performance at all, and then we will see if St. Louis really did get their ace.
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