Saturday, April 09, 2005


Jaret Wright Imploded

I ran my projected ERA's for the Yankees starters a few articles back, but I want to throw the PECOTA and ZiPS projections at you as well with mine next to it. I made mine way before I checked out PECOTA and ZiPS projections, so I'm going to find out how close (or way off) I am now at almost the same time as you.

Baseball Rants Projection
1) Randy Johnson 2.83
2) Mike Mussina 4.04
3) Carl Pavano 4.30
4) Jaret Wright 4.89
5) Kevin Brown 4.27
6) Tanyon Sturtze 5.01

1) Randy Johnson 2.83
2) Mike Mussina 4.14
3) Carl Pavano 4.51
4) Jaret Wright 4.57
5) Kevin Brown 4.00
6) Tanyon Sturtze 5.00

1) Randy Johnson 3.10
2) Mike Mussina 3.73
3) Carl Pavano 4.36
4) Jaret Wright 4.28
5) Kevin Brown 4.22
6) Tanyon Sturtze 5.29

I find it interesting (and slightly exciting) I came out to the same ERA on Randy Johnson as PECOTA, and I was also 0.01 off on Tanyon Sturtze. PECOTA sees Johnson, Brown and Sturtze as better than ZiPS projection, while ZiPS sees Mussina, Pavano, and Wright as better than PECOTA's. I am much harsher towards Jaret Wright than the other projection systems, but that might be because they do not account for Leo Mazzone. I'll have to ask Nate Silver at BP next time he does a chat. Of course, I could be wrong as well, so that could be the reason I'm projecting him for worse. Honestly, I hope ZiPS is not correct, because that would give them two ace-caliber starters in Johnson and Mussina. I would much rather see my projection or PECOTA's come through to avoid that from happening, with ERA's over 4.00 for Mussina, even with Johnson doing slightly better. I might run this projection idea through with a few other rotations; I'm thinking Oakland, Chicago, Atlanta, Minnesota, Boston, and a random one, like the Reds.

This is not the only article today, but I didn't want to bore non-Red Sox fans with a Sox minor league report. If your interested in that, it is below the picture of the 2004 World Series Ring...Also, over at Heads/Tails today I give my take on the Mariano Rivera "situation" sure to check it out!

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