Wednesday, April 27, 2005

 

Equivalent Average Leaders

Some of the names at the top 0f this list are most likely names that will not stay there all year. For example, Jacque Jones (.387) and Brian Roberts (.373) have the top two EqA's in the American League...Roberts might have turned a corner (not one that will keep him as high as he is, but a corner nonetheless) while Jones has gone through spurts of usefulness before. They will both fall back down to earth, but for some reason I have more faith in Robert's ability to stay useful over Jones...

I bet the Cubs wish Brian Roberts had been traded to them instead of Jerry Hairston at this point, especially with Todd Walker and Nomar Garciaparra out...of course, uber-Neifi is here to the rescue! This inhabited by an alien version of Neifi Perez is blowing away all expectations so far, but the fun part will be when he comes crashing back down to earth and hits his historically low, low numbers. Neifi Perez's EqA is .335 at the moment...his 90th percentile PECOTA projection had him at a .276 EqA. Its nice to see one of the worst players in the league putting up outstanding numbers...I'm pretty confident it will not last, but if it does, than who the hell am I (and statheads worldwide!) supposed to pick on now? I guess I'll pick on Renteria (.230 EqA). I'm extremely afraid of Renteria turning into Darin Erstad version 2.0.

Erstad
1999 - .253/.308/.374; WARP1 2.8
2000 - .355/.409/.541; WARP1 9.4
2001 - .258/.331/.360; WARP1 4.2
2002 - .283/.313/.389; WARP1 5.8
2003 - .252/.309/.333; WARP1 1.1
2004 - .295/.322/.452; WARP1 4.1

Renteria
2001 - .260/.314/.371; WARP1 4.2
2002 - .305/.364/.439; WARP1 5.0
2003 - .330/.394/.480; WARP1 8.7
2004 - .287/.327/.401; WARP1 3.4
2005 - .237/.282/.375

The bold lines are those that are the outliers; I just don't see them happening again (obvious statement in Erstad's case, worrisome statement in Renteria's). At this point I'm not even sure if Renteria is going to meet a middle ground of 2003 and 2004 or 2003 and 2002 or any of those combinations. I think a regression to 2001 form is in order, which for $10 million a year, is not what I want to be hearing. Just a note on Erstad's 2004 line that looks like there was improvement: When he came back for the Angels off the DL he was swinging the bat great for a few weeks, I even remember warning my friend not to pick him up off of free agents in fantasy baseball because he'd drop back to earth...he picked him up, he regressed, and Erstad's season line goes against what he is actually capable of due to a random hot streak (like our friends Jones and Roberts, and especially Neifi).

If Renteria could go back to his 2002 form I would be happy, and I'd even settle for his 2004 form at this point, although the OBP and SLG figures would annoy me; annoyance is not disdain. Disdain is what I feel right now as I look at his .237/.282/.375 line, his .230 EQA, and then take a look at Dustin Pedroia's line in Double-A Portland right now: .358/.470/.509. Even if (and of course, it would happen) Pedroia lost a lot of those rates coming to the majors, I might still see a .280/.360/.440 line eventually this year. He was projected for a .292/.362/.426 with a .288 EqA, so I guess I'm not too far off on my thinking. Also, Pedroia was projected to a 31.7 VORP, with Renteria at 37.7 for 2004...if he keeps it up, he'll be lucky to get into the high 20's. Not to mention that Pedroia is projected to be the better player the next few years after 2004, for the league minimum or close to it. Granted, small sample size caveats apply to both Renteria and Pedroia, but I'm thinking Renteria might settle into his 2001 form at his best in a Boston uniform...I could just be utterly pessimistic due to my dislike of the signing from the start, but I could also be right. In a way, I hope I'm very wrong.

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