Saturday, April 09, 2005

 

David Wells Imploded

I figured since Wells got hit hard today I would follow up the Yankee rotation post with the Sox one. Here goes:

Baseball Rants
1) Curt Schilling 3.71
2) Matt Clement 3.87
3) Bronson Arroyo 3.97
4) Tim Wakefield 4.23
5) Wade Miller 3.91
6) David Wells 4.77

PECOTA
1) Curt Schilling 3.76
2) Matt Clement 3.97
3) Bronson Arroyo 4.22
4) Tim Wakefield 4.57
5) Wade Miller 4.44
6) David Wells 4.60

ZiPS
1) Curt Schilling 3.26
2) Matt Clement 4.38
3) Bronson Arroyo 3.83
4) Tim Wakefield 4.80
5) Wade Miller 4.33
6) David Wells 4.17

I could be overly optimistic where Wade Miller is concerned, especially when you look at PECOTA and ZiPS projections. I think ZiPS was way off on Wells, especially after his first two starts showing us he might be on his last legs. Overall, I like PECOTA's Clement projection and ZiPS' Arroyo projection, and my Miller one. If somehow the Red Sox can mix and match these three projection systems, they would be incredibly difficult to beat. Schilling could end up anywhere on those three projections and it wouldn't matter if the production from Arroyo, Clement and Miller was as I want.

Comments:
I'm not even a big Sox fan, but I think if Miller comes back healthy and ready to go he could be a big surprise in the AL. I by no means see Cy in his future, but I wouldn't be surprised if his ERA was under 4 and he challenged or surpassed the rest of the starters as Boston's #2 in the second half.
 
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