Saturday, April 23, 2005

 

A bump in the road....damn

While I was sifting through the list of pitchers for the Ray Lankford Wing of the Hall of Fame, I stumbled across what seems to be a problem. The Win Shares totals for 19th century pitchers are quite high in some cases, while there WARP3 and JAWS scores are extremely low. Pitchers with WS totals equaling or surpassing David Cone and Frank Viola have WARP3 totals 40-50 points less. I e-mailed Clay Davenport at baseballprospectus.com hoping that he has an answer for this (I have an idea, but I hope he has advice as well) to help me get through this. So no pitchers today, maybe Monday. I'll get to another article later today if I get a chance. Sorry for the delay everyone.

-Marc Normandin

Note: Read Dan Scotto's article if you have not yet!

Comments:
One way to solve the problem would be to mornalize their win shares scores for innings. The reason for the pre-1900 win share scores being so high is because they pitched so many darn innings. Obviously, this would never happen today (or any time after about 1910 for a pitcher who wasn't lights-out), so if a guy pitched 50% more innings than one would expect post-1900, you can adjust it so that only 66.6% of his win shares are counted...I know it's a pain, but it could help weed out the unworthies out of the old-timers...
 
Normalize, not mornalize...
 
You = genius...I can apply math, but I sure as hell can't create it
 
Clay Davenport e-mailed be back (thanks much) and gave me a great explanation of the why...it has alot to do with how much of the runs prevented involved the defense rather than the pitcher, so the Win Share totals are high for the innings and the wins, etc, while the WARP scores are low due to the lack of pitcher involvement prior to the 1900's and even up to WWII.
 
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