Monday, April 04, 2005
Baseball Rants Welcomes John Sickels
John Sickels of minorleagueball.com , Down on the Farm, and The Baseball Prospect Book series fame agreed to do an interview/Q&A for Baseball Rants. The questions come from both Matt and I, as well as a slew of reader questions. I recommend John's work for anyone who does not already enjoy it daily; I catch myself looking through my copy of The Baseball Prospect Book 2005 everytime I want to look up some prospects in an article.
Marc Normandin: With Johnny Damon's free agency on the horizon, the Sox centerfield job might be open. Where do you see Hanley Ramirez fitting into that picture in 2006, or possibly 2007? Or do you think he will end up being traded by the deadline this year?
John Sickels: I really have no idea. I know the Red Sox like him a lot, and he’s obviously one of the premier prospects around, but whether he is trade bait or something else, we’ll just have to wait and see. He certainly has the athleticism to play center field if they want to go that route; he’d need more experience of course.
MN: Dustin Pedroia was projected for a 33.1 VORP by PECOTA for 2005, the highest among players with no major league experience. Not only that, but he trails Renteria by 4.2 points of projected VORP. Did the Red Sox possibly make a mistake committing this much money to Renteria over the next 4 years, or do you think PECOTA might have simply made a mistake?
JS: As good as Pedroia played last year, PECOTA or any other projection is only as good as the sample size, and a sample size of 42 games in A-ball is not enough for me. Now, understand, I love Pedroia as a prospect. I think he’s going to be an excellent player. But I can’t take something specific like a “33.1 projected VORP” seriously based on a 42-game sample, not at this point. That said, the Renteria signing does open up some questions about roster management for the Sox as this question and the Hanley question show. But it’s better to have too much talent clustered at that end of the defensive spectrum than not enough.
MN: Picture 2007: Matt Clement, Bronson Arroyo, Jon Papelbon, John Lester, Abe Alvarez. What do you think of that with run support that is slightly less than it is now in Boston?
JS: I think the Sox are well-positioned for the next few years, certainly. There should be some barnburner races with the Yankees, and heck, maybe even the Blue Jays and Devil Rays. The only team in that division that really has no chance to be interesting in the near future is the Orioles.
Matthew Kizner: With Joe Mauer already being touted as one of the best hitting catchers to ever grace the major leagues, and no room at 1B in Minnesota (thanks to Justin Morneau), what do the twins do with the apparently injury prone Mauer? Do they ride him out and let him catch, or do they let him DH, displace Lew Ford, and possibly alter their outfield?
JS: I’d let him catch until he proves he can’t. It looks like they have third and first covered for the future as well. But Mauer’s bat is so good that if he can’t catch, he will push someone aside. . .not Mauer, but possibly Ford. Or maybe Jacque Jones?
MK: I’ve heard varying reports on Jeremy Reed, from a surefire RotY candidate, to SAFECO hurting him, and some say he may not even be the real deal. What’s your take on Jeremy Reed?
JS: I like Reed. I think he’s a solid .280-.290 hitter with good contact ability, lots of gap power, and some steals. Safeco will suppress his power development, but he’s not a huge home run guy in any park.
Baseball Rants Readers: Whats your preference for the 2005 Red Sox 3B: Bill Mueller or Kevin Youkilis? If you like Mueller for 2005, who would you rather have in 2006?
JS: I’d probably play Mueller, hoping he has a good season so I can flip him, then give Youkilis the job in ’06.
BR: Whats your take on Chris Narveson, who the Sox got in the BK deal with the Rockies?
JS: Projects as a fourth starter, decent stuff lefty, needs to have good command, doesn’t have a huge margin for error.
BR: I think the Cleveland Indians have a real good chance at taking the American League Central from the Twins. Do you think their young hitters and pitchers can continue to improve, stagnate, or go backwards?
JS: I agree, the Indians are close to being ready to challenge the Twins. The Twins have more pitching depth and I think they’ll hold the Tribe off this year, but starting in ’06 there should be some excellent races in that division. The key for Cleveland will be turning a large group of live arms into successful pitchers.
BR: I'm going to see a lot of Colorado Springs Sky Sox baseball this year. What are your thoughts on Justin Hampson and Mike Esposito, two pitching prospects that figure to start at that level? Do they have what it takes to succeed at altitude in terms of stuff? Also, where does Jed Lowrie figure to end up in the draft this summer?
JS: I’ve heard Lowrie rumored as early as the supplemental round, but more likely in the 2nd-3rd round range. Hampson and Esposito are both Grade C guys. Their stuff is OK, not spectacular, but good-enough when their command is on. Both could be useful major league pitchers, neither will be an ace. I worry that the thin air will be hard for them to adapt to, particularly Esposito.
BR: What is your favorite minor league ballpark to take in a game? Ever been to Pawtucket?
JS: I do most of my traveling in the Midwest. My favorite current park is Cedar Rapids.
BR: Who do you think is comparable to Brandon McCarthy at this point?? Anybody jump to mind?
JS: The White Sox like to compare him to Jack McDowell, and I think that is apt.
BR: Did anybody really know about Ian Kinsler or Jason Kubel before last year??
JS: Kinsler was a huge surprise. I saw him play in college ball at Missouri, he looked OK but nothing like a top-notch prospect. I think he took everyone by surprise, even the Rangers. Kubel was someone who showed a good hitting track record in the low minors, and I’ve rated him as a sleeper in past seasons, so he wasn’t as big a surprise.
BR:What would Roberto Petagine's line be if he was given a full year in the bigs?
JS: He’s old now….I’d say .260/.340/.475 now. If someone gave him a job four years ago, it would have been more like .280/.375/.510.
BR: Have you seen Macier Izturis play? Is he as good as his numbers would indicate? Do you question the sanity of Jim Bowden?
JS: I saw Izturis play last year for Edmonton, and I do think he made legitimate improvements at the plate. He has a nice level swing and decent plate discipline. Not a lot of power, but if he maintains the discipline he should post a good-enough batting average and OBP. And his defense is pretty sharp. The PCL inflated his numbers some last year, but he should be at least as good as his brother and maybe better.
As for Bowden, there are lots of other weird things he’s done…that trade was one of the minor ones.
BR: Mike Restovich... do you think he'll succeed against major league pitching?? I'd give him a 35% chance of doing well enough this year to start next year. Is that too harsh?
JS: Yeah, that’s too harsh. He’s not going to hit .300, but he should hit .260-.270 with enough power production to stay in the lineup.
BR: Would you favor Las Vegas getting a MLB team?
JS: No, I’m not in favor of any further expansion for at least another decade. By the time the game is ready to expand again, say 2020, the water tables out west will be dried up, and people will be abandoning Las Vegas and Phoenix as uninhabitable.
BR: Matt Thornton and Bobby Madritsch: Buy or Sell?
JS: I like Madtrisch. I don’t like Thornton.
MN: Thanks for your time John, I appreciate the answers to the many questions we received for this Q&A. IF anyone out there has not purchased a copy of John Sickels The Baseball Prospect Book, 2005 you should definitely put away some cash and buy it immediately, as well as visit his new website, Minor League Ball. It is a daily read of mine, and should be part of your internet travels as well.
Link
Marc Normandin: With Johnny Damon's free agency on the horizon, the Sox centerfield job might be open. Where do you see Hanley Ramirez fitting into that picture in 2006, or possibly 2007? Or do you think he will end up being traded by the deadline this year?
John Sickels: I really have no idea. I know the Red Sox like him a lot, and he’s obviously one of the premier prospects around, but whether he is trade bait or something else, we’ll just have to wait and see. He certainly has the athleticism to play center field if they want to go that route; he’d need more experience of course.
MN: Dustin Pedroia was projected for a 33.1 VORP by PECOTA for 2005, the highest among players with no major league experience. Not only that, but he trails Renteria by 4.2 points of projected VORP. Did the Red Sox possibly make a mistake committing this much money to Renteria over the next 4 years, or do you think PECOTA might have simply made a mistake?
JS: As good as Pedroia played last year, PECOTA or any other projection is only as good as the sample size, and a sample size of 42 games in A-ball is not enough for me. Now, understand, I love Pedroia as a prospect. I think he’s going to be an excellent player. But I can’t take something specific like a “33.1 projected VORP” seriously based on a 42-game sample, not at this point. That said, the Renteria signing does open up some questions about roster management for the Sox as this question and the Hanley question show. But it’s better to have too much talent clustered at that end of the defensive spectrum than not enough.
MN: Picture 2007: Matt Clement, Bronson Arroyo, Jon Papelbon, John Lester, Abe Alvarez. What do you think of that with run support that is slightly less than it is now in Boston?
JS: I think the Sox are well-positioned for the next few years, certainly. There should be some barnburner races with the Yankees, and heck, maybe even the Blue Jays and Devil Rays. The only team in that division that really has no chance to be interesting in the near future is the Orioles.
Matthew Kizner: With Joe Mauer already being touted as one of the best hitting catchers to ever grace the major leagues, and no room at 1B in Minnesota (thanks to Justin Morneau), what do the twins do with the apparently injury prone Mauer? Do they ride him out and let him catch, or do they let him DH, displace Lew Ford, and possibly alter their outfield?
JS: I’d let him catch until he proves he can’t. It looks like they have third and first covered for the future as well. But Mauer’s bat is so good that if he can’t catch, he will push someone aside. . .not Mauer, but possibly Ford. Or maybe Jacque Jones?
MK: I’ve heard varying reports on Jeremy Reed, from a surefire RotY candidate, to SAFECO hurting him, and some say he may not even be the real deal. What’s your take on Jeremy Reed?
JS: I like Reed. I think he’s a solid .280-.290 hitter with good contact ability, lots of gap power, and some steals. Safeco will suppress his power development, but he’s not a huge home run guy in any park.
Baseball Rants Readers: Whats your preference for the 2005 Red Sox 3B: Bill Mueller or Kevin Youkilis? If you like Mueller for 2005, who would you rather have in 2006?
JS: I’d probably play Mueller, hoping he has a good season so I can flip him, then give Youkilis the job in ’06.
BR: Whats your take on Chris Narveson, who the Sox got in the BK deal with the Rockies?
JS: Projects as a fourth starter, decent stuff lefty, needs to have good command, doesn’t have a huge margin for error.
BR: I think the Cleveland Indians have a real good chance at taking the American League Central from the Twins. Do you think their young hitters and pitchers can continue to improve, stagnate, or go backwards?
JS: I agree, the Indians are close to being ready to challenge the Twins. The Twins have more pitching depth and I think they’ll hold the Tribe off this year, but starting in ’06 there should be some excellent races in that division. The key for Cleveland will be turning a large group of live arms into successful pitchers.
BR: I'm going to see a lot of Colorado Springs Sky Sox baseball this year. What are your thoughts on Justin Hampson and Mike Esposito, two pitching prospects that figure to start at that level? Do they have what it takes to succeed at altitude in terms of stuff? Also, where does Jed Lowrie figure to end up in the draft this summer?
JS: I’ve heard Lowrie rumored as early as the supplemental round, but more likely in the 2nd-3rd round range. Hampson and Esposito are both Grade C guys. Their stuff is OK, not spectacular, but good-enough when their command is on. Both could be useful major league pitchers, neither will be an ace. I worry that the thin air will be hard for them to adapt to, particularly Esposito.
BR: What is your favorite minor league ballpark to take in a game? Ever been to Pawtucket?
JS: I do most of my traveling in the Midwest. My favorite current park is Cedar Rapids.
BR: Who do you think is comparable to Brandon McCarthy at this point?? Anybody jump to mind?
JS: The White Sox like to compare him to Jack McDowell, and I think that is apt.
BR: Did anybody really know about Ian Kinsler or Jason Kubel before last year??
JS: Kinsler was a huge surprise. I saw him play in college ball at Missouri, he looked OK but nothing like a top-notch prospect. I think he took everyone by surprise, even the Rangers. Kubel was someone who showed a good hitting track record in the low minors, and I’ve rated him as a sleeper in past seasons, so he wasn’t as big a surprise.
BR:What would Roberto Petagine's line be if he was given a full year in the bigs?
JS: He’s old now….I’d say .260/.340/.475 now. If someone gave him a job four years ago, it would have been more like .280/.375/.510.
BR: Have you seen Macier Izturis play? Is he as good as his numbers would indicate? Do you question the sanity of Jim Bowden?
JS: I saw Izturis play last year for Edmonton, and I do think he made legitimate improvements at the plate. He has a nice level swing and decent plate discipline. Not a lot of power, but if he maintains the discipline he should post a good-enough batting average and OBP. And his defense is pretty sharp. The PCL inflated his numbers some last year, but he should be at least as good as his brother and maybe better.
As for Bowden, there are lots of other weird things he’s done…that trade was one of the minor ones.
BR: Mike Restovich... do you think he'll succeed against major league pitching?? I'd give him a 35% chance of doing well enough this year to start next year. Is that too harsh?
JS: Yeah, that’s too harsh. He’s not going to hit .300, but he should hit .260-.270 with enough power production to stay in the lineup.
BR: Would you favor Las Vegas getting a MLB team?
JS: No, I’m not in favor of any further expansion for at least another decade. By the time the game is ready to expand again, say 2020, the water tables out west will be dried up, and people will be abandoning Las Vegas and Phoenix as uninhabitable.
BR: Matt Thornton and Bobby Madritsch: Buy or Sell?
JS: I like Madtrisch. I don’t like Thornton.
MN: Thanks for your time John, I appreciate the answers to the many questions we received for this Q&A. IF anyone out there has not purchased a copy of John Sickels The Baseball Prospect Book, 2005 you should definitely put away some cash and buy it immediately, as well as visit his new website, Minor League Ball. It is a daily read of mine, and should be part of your internet travels as well.
Link
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