Sunday, April 17, 2005

 

AL Roundup

Bi-weekly I'll go over the standings for each division. So this week I'll cover the AL, and next week I'll tackle the NL; that way we get some distance between the roundups. I'll take the standings that are there, compared to those I predicted, as well as with the pythagenport standings. Pythangeport is different from Bill James pythagorean standings, in this aspect:

"A modified form of Bill James' pythagorean formula. Instead of using a fixed exponent (2, 1.83), the "pythagenport" formula derives the exponent from the run environment - the more runs per game, the higher the exponent. The formula for the exponent is X = .45 + 1.5 * log10 ((rs+ra)/g), and then winning percentage is calculated as (rs^x)/(rs^x + ra^x)."

So I have to first derive every team's Runs Per Game and then plug that in as the exponent for the formula that will give me the pythagenport records. One note here, the definition says it has been tested between 4 and 40 runs per game, and many of the numbers are at roughly 3.5 runs per game, so don't take this as absolute this week, this is just to get acquainted with the new formula. After more games are played it will be more accurate as well.



Actual Standings, AL East

1) Toronto 8-4 (.667)
2) Baltimore 7-4 (.636)
3) Boston 6-5 (.545)
4) Tampa Bay 4-7 (.364)
5) New York 4-7 (.364)

Pythagenport Standings, AL East

1)Toronto .818
2) Boston .652
3) Baltimore .616
4) Tampa Bay .319
5) New York .232

Obviously the percentages do not accurately reflect the number of games played so far; for example, according to this the Red Sox should have 7.172 wins so far. I'm just using the percentage to show exactly how good they have been according to their Runs Scored vs. Runs Allowed with the Runs Per Game environment involved...the whole point of Pythagenport. One bad loss could obviously shift the balance, but Toronto's .818 pythagenport winning percentage is nice to look at. That probably will not last, I'm waiting for Josh Towers to fall back to earth first of all. I expect better things from David Bush in the future, but not enough to keep this team in first or even second, regardless of my rantings at Heads/Tails. Another thing that stands out is New York's .232 winning percentage. They are 4-7 and playing over their heads...kind of scary if that keeps up....it probably won't, most likely will not, but its nice to look at as a Sox fan.


Actual Standings, AL Central

1) Minnesota 8-3
2) Chicago 8-3
3) Cleveland 4-7
4) Detroit 4-7
5) Kansas City 4-7

Pythanenport Standings, AL Central

1) Minnesota (.710)
2) Detroit (.644)
3) Chicago (.556)
4) Cleveland (.381)
5) Kansas City (.171)

This just in, Dmitri Young has no idea what he is talking about. In either the real standings or the Pythagenport Standings. I was hoping somehow that Cleveland and Detroit would end up on top and then we could say Dmitri Young was a stathead, that is where his claim came from. Minnesota is on top, but the power shifts to Detroit for second place. That probably won't last, as Cleveland has to come out of their funk at some point. This is probably the best case scenario for Chicago winning percentage wise. 46 Runs Scored and 43 Runs Allowed? I know its only 11 games, but they are playing a few games over their heads already. They will come back down to earth, and the crash won't be pretty, but at least it'll run fast like Scott Podsednik. Poor Kansas City somehow managed a percentage under .200, making the Yankees look like legit champs again (sorry, had to get another shot in).

Actual Standings, AL West

1) Los Angeles Of Anaheim (I think) 6-5
2) Oakland 5-6
3) Seattle 5-6
4) Texas 5-7

Pythagenport Standings, AL West

1) Seattle (.661)
2) Los Angeles of I Can't Even Believe I'm Writing This (.580)
3) Oakland (.363)
4) Texas (.328)

A complete shakeup minus Texas, who stays in last. Seattle will suffer with Bobby Madstritch missing the season with that shoulder tear, and the first time King Felix comes up there will be rejoicing in Seattle only; the rest of the league will weep if he succeeds, and statheads and scouts will fear for his arm at such a tender age...for God's sake I think he is my age (I'm a college freshman thank you). The Angels do not really frighten me too much, and I don't expect more than 83-84 wins this year, so this seems about right for this time of year. Oakland needs to get in gear if they want to contend like they plan to; luckily for A's fans they are playing over their head (at 5-6 that doesn't sound promising, but its better than actually having a .363 win percentage isn't it?) Poor Texas has scored 57 runs, not bad, but when giving up 70 not so hot. Expect more of the same from that poor team.

Overall, don't read into this adventure too much yet. Next week's NL Roundup will probably be more accurate, especially since 5-6 more games would have been played by then and we can hopefully cross the 4 RPG threshold in order to make sure this formula doesn't break down like Clay Davenport warned it may. If your a fan of a team with a bad pythagenport record, just be happy they are playing over their heads, even if only by 2 games. Every game counts folks.

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